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Battle Lines Shift in House Races 10/14 06:14
Republicans were retreating Tuesday from a handful of battleground U.S.
House races while Democrats were racing to raise money to boost candidates who
seemed like long shots earlier this year.
DES MOINES, Iowa (AP) -- Republicans were retreating Tuesday from a handful
of battleground U.S. House races while Democrats were racing to raise money to
boost candidates who seemed like long shots earlier this year.
The Congressional Leadership Fund, the leading House Republican super PAC,
canceled spending in four races from the Midwest to the East Coast and
increased its investment in 16 other races from Texas to Pennsylvania. Another
super PAC allied with President Donald Trump is cutting back in a battleground
district in the Las Vegas area.
The decisions were disclosed by three Republican campaign officials familiar
with the plans who spoke on condition of anonymity to share private strategy
conversations.
Meanwhile, Democrats' House campaign committee is eyeing openings in
Republican-held districts and hoping to raise millions of dollars in the next
week to fuel a late round of advertising that they say could net at least a
half dozen more seats.
The shifting money in the final three weeks of midterm campaigns points to
an increasingly defensive posture by Republicans, who have already trimmed
their expectations in U.S. Senate races, and new aggression from Democrats, who
are trying to capitalize on President Donald Trump's weak approval ratings.
"You can tell now where people are competing based on where they're putting
the money," said Stu Sandler, a Republican strategist working on House and
statewide races this year.
David McIntosh, president of the conservative Club For Growth, said there
are only a few places where Republicans could pick up seats this year.
"The economic environment has not been good," he said. "Voters are
dissatisfied with their Republican majority and the base is also dissatisfied
with that they weren't able to get the SAVE America Act passed," referring to
Trump's plan for a strict proof-of-citizenship voting bill.
"It looked like Republicans were weak," McIntosh said, "and so you've seen a
lot of drop-off in enthusiasm."
Republicans cut back in front-line districts
The Congressional Leadership Fund is no longer spending on advertising in
Iowa's 1st District, where three-term Republican Rep. Mariannette Miller-Meeks
is defending her seat against Democrat Christina Bohannan.
Bohannan is running for her third time against Miller-Meeks. Last time, the
race was decided by only 799 votes, making it the second-closest in the
country. It's an eastern Iowa district where congressional cuts to Medicaid
have been linked to hospital service closures and high diesel prices have been
a challenge for farmers.
Likewise, the officials said the group won't keep spending in New Jersey's
7th District, where second-term Republican Rep. Tom Kean is facing off against
Democrat Rebecca Bennett. Kean has been under scrutiny for his four-month
absence from Congress, which he left unexplained until disclosing a mental
health crisis upon his return. Kean, who won by 5.4 percentage points two years
ago, has also faced questions over his support for Trump's tariffs and the Iran
war.
These races, as well as one in the Cincinnati, Ohio, area and one in
east-central Michigan, have accounted for $13.3 million in Congressional
Leadership Fund spending, more than 12% of its total through Oct. 13.
The group will instead reinforce districts where Trump beat Democrat Kamala
Harris by narrow margins in 2024.
Safety and Affordability, an offshoot of MAGA Inc., pulled nearly $1 million
in ad spending aimed at helping Republican Marty O'Donnell's campaign in
Nevada's 3rd District. Republicans had hoped that Trump's tax-cut legislation
-- specifically no taxes on tips -- would resonate in Las Vegas and help defeat
Democratic Rep. Susie Lee, who voted against the bill.
Sandler said his party needs to turn out voters who usually participate in
presidential elections but often stay home in the midterms.
"One thing you can't say is that they've been under-resourced," he said.
"Republican resources are at a high. They've never been this well-funded in the
midterm."
Democrats try to scrounge up more money
As House Republicans have retrenched, the Democratic Congressional Campaign
Committee believes at least a dozen more races could be within striking
distance. However, they need more money to take advantage.
The committee launched a $17 million fundraising drive, with a deadline of
Oct. 22, to pump advertising onto the air in districts that were once seen as
out of reach.
"It's not that we need the money to win in the districts where we have been
running to get to 218 seats," said Courtney Rice, the committee's communication
director. "We're talking about the next level."
One is Ohio's 10th, a Dayton-area district represented by 12-term Republican
Rep. Mike Turner. Democrats see Turner as beatable despite the former Dayton
mayor's durability and 18 percentage-point victory two years ago. Trump carried
the district by six percentage points in 2024.
Turner didn't begin advertising until late September, according to AdImpact,
later than most competitive House incumbents, and the National Republican
Congressional Committee started spending there this week.
If the Democratic committee reaches its goal, it would also start spending
in the Miami area, suburban St. Louis, Missouri and the Little Rock, Arkansas,
area. They would be able to buy ads in coordination with the campaigns at the
lower rate available to candidates, due to a June Supreme Court decision,
squeezing more ad time from those dollars.
Nebraska sees surge of spending
Senate Republicans are pouring millions more into Nebraska to protect Sen.
Pete Ricketts, the latest sign of how dramatically their spending priorities
have shifted from battleground states toward defending seats they once expected
to hold comfortably.
Ricketts is facing a challenge from independent Dan Osborn, who is backed by
Democrats. Trump won Nebraska by more than 20 percentage points in 2024.
The Senate Leadership Fund, the super PAC aligned with Senate GOP
leadership, said Tuesday it was behind a $15 million investment in the state.
Other groups are also pumping money into the race, with the
cryptocurrency-backed super PAC Fairshake launching a $7 million advertising
campaign, according to AdImpact data.
The group has also increased its investment in Ohio's Senate race, bringing
its total spending there to $45 million in support of Republican Sen. Jon
Husted, who is up against Democratic former Sen. Sherrod Brown.
The Nebraska investment follows new spending by the Senate Leadership Fund
in Kansas and South Carolina, two other states Trump won by double digits in
2024. All three were absent from the group's initial $342 million advertising
plan in April, which has since been reshaped as Republicans pulled back from
Georgia and North Carolina, two states that were central to their original
strategy.
Democrats are also shifting their resources. The Senate Democrats' main
spending arm said Tuesday it was pulling its advertising last week from
Georgia, where Democratic Sen. Jon Ossoff has built a substantial fundraising
advantage over Republican Rep. Mike Collins, and focusing instead on Maine, New
Hampshire, Michigan, Iowa, Kansas, Texas, Alaska and Ohio.
The shifting investments come as both parties make their final spending
decisions in the battle for Senate control, with Democrats pointing to their
candidates and the political environment as potential counterweights to
Republican money.
In a letter to fellow senators Tuesday, Senate Democratic Leader Chuck
Schumer said the battle for control of the chamber "comes down to one defining
question."
"Will the unprecedented tsunami of Republican money defeat the massive
Democratic advantage in candidates, policies, and political climate?" Schumer
asked.
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